Erdogan has many problems:
- if he lets Idlib refugees cross the border he will not know whether they really chose the transit towards Europe;
- his deployment of S 400 missiles prevents that western forces could help him in the Idlib region - for instance with respect to a no-fly zone;
- with his Idlib engagement he acts against Russian interests; but he depends on Russia:
> Turkey imports Russian natural gas
> Turkey imports Russian nuclear fuel
> he needs Russian support for his S 400 system

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